A suggestion that calm is in order regarding Justin Amash, after the jump …..
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When Justin Amash announced that he was considering running for president, there was a sense of panic throughout the liberal landscape (and even a few Never Trumpers). Many pleaded with him to reconsider, presuming this would flip the election to you-know-who. Assuming he follows through on his declaration that he wants the Libertarian nod— and if he fails, then not to further pursue his delusion as a write-in candidate — I’m now of the mind that both Bill Scher (of Liberal Oasis) and more critically, Rachel Bitecofer (whom Rachel Maddow has featured regularly) have it right in believing this is not worth panicking over — and our worries should be aimed at turnout, courting the Latino vote, registering voters and other needs … which are less certain than we may think.
First, Justin Amash has to actually garner the Libertarian Party nomination, which is not-at-all-certain. Rank-and-file Libertarians are not always receptive to Johnny-Come-Latelies who appear to be ‘converts’ to Libertarianism only as a vanity project. And for those who are concerned that conservatives who dislike Trump will be dissuaded from voting for Joe Biden, Rachel Bitecofer feels that it may well drain more from Trump, as Amash is more to the right of 84% of House Republicans (being both anti-choice and a climate denialist).
Even if Amash does win the nomination, there is now a real problem (for all third parties) of gaining ballot access … due in no small part to Covid-19. In the 2016 election, the Libertarian Party appeared on all fifty states’ ballots (with the Green Party appearing on 44). As of this writing: the Libertarians are only at 36 states (and the Greens at 23 states). Bill Scher from his Politico essay a few weeks back:
Several of the elusive ballot lines are in states that in 2016 were either narrowly won or flipped. At present, neither the Libertarian Party nor the Green Party has qualified for the ballot in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa or Minnesota. Additionally, the Green Party has not secured a place on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia, Ohio or Nevada ... and the Libertarian Party is missing from Maine.
To get on the ballot in the remaining states, they need to collect and submit petition signatures. And in a normal year: they would be on track to do just that. But because of the deadly coronavirus — and the social distancing and stay-at-home orders to minimize its spread — after March 6, “petitioning was over in the United States,” as Libertarian Party executive director Daniel Fishman told me.
For America’s third parties, this is nothing less than an existential crisis. Without ballot access, national pollsters won’t feel obligated to include Green and Libertarian candidates in their surveys; voters will be less aware of their nominees and platforms; journalists will be less likely to pay any attention to them; and the probability diminishes that either the Libertarians or Greens can reach the holy grail of 5 percent of the popular vote—the point at which they would finally qualify for federal campaign matching funds.
And most governors/legislatures are not inclined to help third parties by waiving signature requirements. The one thing that might save those parties are court cases — and Bill Scher indicated that (since his mid-April essay) the only new state to grant access to both parties is Illinois— only due to a ruling by a federal judge.
The Libertarian Party was scheduled to hold its nominating convention two weeks from today (Thursday, May 21st in Austin, Texas). Instead, it was cancelled and a meeting will be held a week from today to decide … what next? They will be bumping up against state deadlines the longer it takes to field a candidate, too.
It is true that four years ago the Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson did pose something of a threat to our side (running for a second straight time, and thus having some name recognition), and he did pull from both major parties.
He, though, was quantitatively different from either Amash or anyone else they will nominate this time. He publicly opposed the Citizens United decision, opposed foreign wars, argued for better ballot access for all, opposed the NSA spying campaigns in general (not just those directed at GOP figures), was able to have Bill Weld as his running mate, endorsed legalizing marijuana nationwide and had a uniquely whimsical persona (described by comedian Samantha Bee as “freaky-deaky”). His campaign collapsed along the way, though, as most budding third-party phenoms do … and Bill Weld dropped-out long before, publicly endorsing Hillary Clinton.
Anyone that the Libertarians nominate now will be a more standard-issue right-winger (like Amash) who will attract voters unwilling to vote for Joe Biden ... or an unknown (such as perceived front-runner Jacob Hornberger or former judge Jim Gray). And again, they may not be on all state ballots.
To me, it’s the Green Party that I am more concerned about: here, too, the news is encouraging. Both Ralph Nader and Jill Stein were multiple-nominated candidates (and thus with name recognition) who were seen as lefties (rightly or wrongly). Yet neither are seeking the nomination in 2020. Normally, the state GOP parties often seek to help the Greens … but once again, the Covid-19 situation puts something of a damper on that. Howie Hawkins, a New York trade unionist and activist who co-founded the Green Party (and is already endorsed by the Socialist Party) is considered the front-runner … unless Jesse Ventura jumps in the race, and he has a knack for starting strong (and flaming out later) with some right-wing views. (Update: as noted below in the comments, it appears he’s decided against a run).
There is also another third party scrambling to gain ballot access — and this would be the Constitution Party, who has nominated none other than convicted mine owner Don Blankenship— who served time in jail due to his fatal Upper Big Branch Mine disaster, referred to “Cocaine Mitch” McConnell and trafficked in racism by referring to McConnell’s Asian-American in-laws as his “China family.” As of today, that party is only on the ballot in 14 states (and the only possible swing states where they are on the ballot are in Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida and North Carolina). No one who would consider voting for him will vote for Joe Biden.
Finally, many analysts caution against expecting a re-run of the 2016 election … instead, pointing out the 2017 and 2019 elections (and the 2018 mid-terms) are more indicative of the potential this year. Rick Wilson notes that now the Trumpster will face the referendum-on-the-incumbent expectations that he did not face in 2016 and Rachel Bitecofer notes that most third-party candidates draw some favorable initial attention … until voters usually come-home to one of the two major parties they normally support.
Even if none of the above is either encouraging, much less persuasive: there will be a Libertarian and a Green Party candidate (albeit, maybe not on your state’s ballot). That will not change. Exhorting them to be reasonable, explaining this is a binary election that they should sit-out due to emergency conditions: will fall on deaf ears (much less pleading for a Biden cross-endorsement, a la Bill Weld).
Very likely for the Libertarian and Constitution party regulars: absent a Gary Johnson-type, people who would consider voting for Joe Biden will have either already decided to do so (or will decide in the next few weeks) all on their own.
If they are late deciders, they likely will be voting for Trump or a third-party candidate: probably will not consider voting for a Dem in general (or Biden in particular) and even if there were only two names on the ballot: there is always the choice of leaving the space blank or writing-in a name (which paper ballots make easier). These are resolute folks — they will not be persuaded by any liberal campaign — and we would spend our time more productively not losing sleep over them.
Let’s close with the late bassist Charlie Haden — whose voice was affected by a case of childhood polio — and his rendition of the old song Wayfaring Stranger. It is a calming tune that I hope reflects tonight’s essay.
Now, on to Top Comments:
From tampaedski:
In the diary by accumbens about on of the Trumpster’s personal valets testing positive for the coronavirus — this reply by the diary’s own author deserves note for the last line.
From northleft:
In the front-page story on the same subject as above— MessagingMatters had the absolute best response to the news.
From Onomastic:
Paul A left a precise and damning comment in my own diary (exhorting the “Open ‘er up” politicians to volunteer their own family, first)
Another reader, peptabysmal, deemed Paul's comment worthy of being submitted to Top Comments … and I wholeheartedly agree.
Highlighted by ninkasi23:
In the diary by ksmoore777 about the conspiracy theory concerning not George Soros (as in the past) but now Bill Gates — I like this comment by G2geek as to how to break that habit.
And from Ed Tracey, your faithful correspondent this evening ........
In the front-page story about the latest false accusation (turned farcical) by the baby-faced fraudster named Jacob Wohl— Tamar reminds us of some of his prior escapades, while drop acid not bombs gives us a scientific (as well as social science) response to an epithet.
TOP PHOTOSMay 6th, 2020 Next - enjoy jotter's wonderful *PictureQuilt™* below. Just click on the picture and it will magically take you to the comment that features that photo. (NOTE: Any missing images in the Quilt were removed because (a) they were from an unapproved source that somehow snuck through in the comments, or (b) it was an image from the DailyKos Image Library which didn't have permissions set to allow others to use it.) |
And lastly: yesterday's Top Mojo - mega-mojo to the intrepid mik ...... who rescued this feature from oblivion:
2) That’s gonna leave a mark by alamancedem +2025) [image] by ingearmike +18212) Thanks for the sweet followup. 👍🏼 … by sockpuppet +137