A look at a few “What Ifs?” of the 20th Century, after the jump ……..
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Underlying any attempt, I believe, to envision a “What If?”over a historical matter … often involves two competing theories: the Great Man Theory— that history is made by exceptional individuals, and popularized by the Scottish philosopher Thomas Carlyle in the 1840’s ….. or the counter-argument made (twenty years later) by the English philosopher Herbert Spencer — that such ‘great men’ are the products of their societies, and that their actions would be impossible without the social conditions built before their lifetimes.
One need not choose between the two (both could be present) and one could cite different individuals or movements in different terms. Historian Richard Evans finds the whole “What If?” concept a “waste of time” while others think that historians ignore this at their own peril.
Still, it’s important to consider: had a game-changing historical figure chosen a different path (or had different luck) — would history be different as a result? Or would general societal circumstances lead to similar (if not identical) outcomes? The latter idea can (in its crudest form) be summarized by the “Megatrends” author John Naisbitt— as leadership consisting of “Find a parade …. and then get in front of it”.
We have seen many “What if?” discussions about the assassinations of Abraham Lincoln, John Kennedy and Robert Kennedy — I’d like to raise four 20th Century questions …. and then turn the floor over to you, dear readers.
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Three years ago, Europe marked the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of World War I — which was ignited, most historians agree, following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo (by a nineteen-year-old Bosnian Serb named Gavril Princip). Supposedly, Franz Ferdinand ignored warnings not to visit Sarajevo, as tensions ran high at the time.
A professor of war studies at Kings College in London named Richard Ned Lebow wrote a book entitled Archduke Franz Ferdinand Lives!— which posits that WW-I might not have taken place (and by extension WW-II, which was a sequel to the first) had the Archduke survived, due to his abilities as a peace-maker. Many disagree, and Professor Lebow added that leaders have a tendency "to exaggerate their ability to control events, which they all did in World War One with fatal consequences".
Shot in Sarajevo: June, 1914For years, many people believed that Fidel Castro had been given a try-out as a baseball pitcher by (depending upon whom you read) the NY Yankees or the original Washington Senators (who today are the Minnesota Twins) in the late 1940’s to early 1950’s — but wound-up attending law school instead. Had this been the case, the question of the Cuban revolution might be different had he been signed. The story seemed plausible, as baseball is quite popular in Cuba and Castro was an avid fan. I, too, had heard the story and wondered if it was true.
Two years ago, a DK reader here published a diary— telling the quite boring tale that no, this is an apocryphal story. First, the Yankees were not active in scouting talent in Latin American until the 1960’s (though him playing for the “Yanquis” did make for good copy). The Washington Senators did do some scouting in the region at that time ... and history professor Adrian Burgos concedes that it may have been possible that Castro went to an open tryout held by the Washington Senators in Havana ... but he was not "at the level of a talented Cuban ballplayer where the scouts went looking for him." So, he would not have become a “Senator” in the US.
From Yale professor Roberto González Echevarría’s book The Pride of Havana:
No one has produced even one team picture with Fidel Castro in it. I have found the box score of an intramural game played between the Law and the Business Schools at the University of Havana where a certain F. Castro pitched and lost, 5-4, in late November 1946; this is likely to be the only published box score in which the future dictator appears (El Mundo, November 28, 1946). Cubans know that Fidel Castro was no ballplayer, though he dressed himself in the uniform of a spurious, tongue-in-cheek team called Barbudos (Bearded Ones) after he came to power in 1959 and played a few exhibition games.
Fidel Castro enjoyed the myth of him having been a real Major League Baseball prospect and would not naysay the rumor. Author Al Featherston has a humorous essay speculating on what sort of a career Castro may (or may not) have enjoyed, had he actually been signed.
Fidel Castro and Los BarbudosStaying with baseball, but moving into more recent years …. in 1992, the eighth commissioner in Major League Baseball’s history (Francis “Fay” Vincent) was fired after only three years on-the-job by the league’s team owners, who felt Vincent was not representing their interests. English translation: while he was hired by the owners (and did well for them) he saw his job as a balancing act (raising minimum player salaries, acknowledging collusion earlier in the 80’s by owners and treating the players union as an equal, not the enemy). The owners wanted much more.
Eventually, the owner of the Milwaukee Brewers franchise (Bud Selig) became commissioner …. a post he held onto more than twenty-two years, until the beginning of 2015. And he sanctiond a player lockout that led to the cancellation of the 1994 World Series.
In 2002, Fay Vincent published his memoirs entitled The Last Commissioner— and in it, he related that one of the league owners wanted to succeed him.
"Fay, what do you think about me becoming commissioner?" George W. Bush asked Vincent several months after Vincent was forced out as commissioner in September 1992. Bush owned the Texas Rangers at the time.
"I think it's a great idea," Vincent said.
"Do you think I'd make a good commissioner?" Bush asked Fay.
"Absolutely," Vincent answered. "You're smart. You love baseball. Is it something you want?"
Replied Bush: "Well, I've been thinking about it. (Bud) Selig tells me that he would love to have me be commissioner and he tells me that he can deliver it."
Not only was that not the truth … it was even worse.
Vincent said he told Bush that Selig wanted to be the commissioner. Bush said that Selig had told him he wasn't interested.
"George, I think Selig wants the job for himself," Vincent said.
Bush: "He told me that I'm still his man but that it will take some time to work out."
Vincent: "George, he can't tell you the truth because the truth is painful and telling painful truths is not his strength. He has never been able to tell people what they don't want to hear."
The rest, alas is history … just two years later, George W. ran for governor of Texas (at the same time his brother ran for governor of Florida). W was successful, while brother Jeb was not …...… and you know-the-rest.
Fay Vincent (fired in 1992)My final story relates to the recently deceased Roger Ailes — and while I’m glad to see accounts mention his many flaws, I can’t celebrate the death of a hemophiliac … especially since as I continue to age, I’m worried about falling, myself. More importantly: we may never have had to learn about Ailes … had circumstances been different. Early on, he had been a young staffer on the old Mike Douglas Show before entering politics (by his association with Richard Nixon).
At age 31 (after the Nixon White House cut ties with him in the early 70’s), Roger Ailes ventured into the New York theater scene — which had become more institutionalized, according to Chapter Six of the definitive biography of Ailes. By-the-bye, I wholeheartedly recommend reading that biography, written by New York magazine writer Gabe Sherman — who is the foremost authority on the Fox network as a result (and who is seen regularly on Chris Hayes’ show). I wrote a book review of it back in 2014.
In 1972, Ailes became an associate producer of a play (originally produced in California) called Mother Earth— which was partly written by the future Captain & Tennille singer Toni Tennille— that had some early success on the West Coast. It was an environmental-themed rock musical revue which Ailes felt could succeed on Broadway (in the vein of “Hair!”). But the show was affected by the executive producer Ray Golden (who had been a writer for the Marx Brothers) who became director and modified the show to make it more mainstream (that caused Toni Tennille to bow-out, replaced by Kelly Garrett). Ailes loved being at opening night … but the play closed after twelve performances (and some bad reviews).
Ailes did not give up, and was urged to watch an Off-Off-Broadway play (written by Lanford Wilson) about a group of drifters who live in a decrepit hotel near Baltimore’s rail station (slated for demolition). The play was named after the name of the building, Hot l Baltimore— with no one concerned about replacing the missing “e” in the word “Hotel”.
Ailes was persuaded to bring the play not to Broadway, but to the smaller (and more experimental) Off-Broadway — at a Greenwich Village theater — which premiered in March, 1973. The opening cast included Judd Hirsch (the future star, among his other work, of the TV show “Taxi”) as well as Conchata Ferrell (later to star in “L.A. Law” and “Two and a Half Men”).
While Mother Earth lasted only twelve performances, Hot l Baltimore ran for 1,166 performances (to the beginning of January, 1976). Ailes played a key role in publicity, and the play earned three Obie Awards (the equivalent of Tonys for Off-Broadway) and the aggregate profit was $400k — a staggering amount for Off-Broadway at the time.
Ailes had some interesting next projects in 1974: a modestly successful wildlife documentary shot in Africa (starring RFK Jr., if you can believe that) and one play that worked on Off-Off-Broadway — yet did not do well when Ailes and others brought it to Off-Broadway. Ionescopade was a series of sketches based upon writings by the French-Romanian absurdist Eugène Ionesco — but which (again) suffered when fellow producer Kermit Bloomgarden — who had discovered the low-budget play — tinkered with it as its director to make it more mainstream, and the play closed after only fourteen performances.
Roger Ailes was starting to become frustrated with the hit-miss aspect of the entertainment world and was devastated when Richard Nixon resigned that summer of 1974. As a result, he accepted an offer to help produce work by a right-wing TV network executive in Colorado …. and the rest is history.
Yet even late in life, Ailes always touted the success of Hot l Baltimore (though others had more to do with it than he) — and one cannot help wondering what he might have accomplished in the theater … and not accomplish elsewhere.
Roger Ailes (in early 1970’s)Have-a-go in the comments about these ….. or any other “What If?” mysteries.
Let’s close with an aptly-named tune ...… from the 1972 solo album by The Who bassist John Entwistle. The ending line may well be how our world ends.
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Now, on to Top Comments:
From Mike the Liberal:
In the front-page story about Paul Ryan and his ‘credibility gap’ over the new Trumpcare proposal — this tweet from Rep. Ted Lieu’s office— posted by Ice Blue — is just too funny. View, laugh.
And in the diary by Colorado Blue about the universally-panned appearance of the Trumpster at today’s NATO summit— Twitter gives us the best comments today. This Tweet from ImpeachTrump (and posted by barskin) speaks the truth, unfortunately.
From elfling:
In the front-page story about the concerns Reince Priebus has about being named in a Comey memo— I nominate this comment by Bindle that references Star Trek (quite effectively).From thurayya:
In today’s Pootie/Woozle diary by Crimson Quillfeather — I thought this comment was astute and funny and so typical of the inimitable bfitzinAR — best wishes from thurayya.
From Avilyn:
In today’s Kitchen Table Kibitzing diary (hosted by boatsie) — this comment by high uintas comes double recommended (by marge and myself).
And from Ed Tracey, your faithful correspondent this evening ........
In the diary by durrati about Business Insider UK’s description of the Trumpster as a Man-Child— a question posed by Colonel Rainsborough — suggesting two possible endings— seems apt.And lastly: yesterday's Top Mojo - mega-mojo to the intrepid mik ...... who rescued this feature from oblivion:
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